TYPICAL FORE- AND AFTERSHOCK BEHAVIOUR:
AN INSIGHT FROM THE ANALYSIS OF THE GENERALIZED VICINITY OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE

RODKIN M.V.

Geophysical Centre RAS, Molodezhnaya 3, Moscow 119296, Russia, E-mail: rodkin@wdcb.ru


The generalized vicinity of strong earthquake is constructed to examine the typical change of regime of seismicity occurring in vicinity of strong earthquakes. The generalized vicinity is a superposition of earthquakes occurring in vicinities of a number of strong earthquakes. The spatial and temporal coordinates of earthquakes are treated here as distances of the current event from the given major earthquake. The spatial distance is norm to the focal size of the given major earthquake. Having in mind the weak dependence of duration of cycle of failure from the earthquake size a simple method of superposition of epochs of strong earthquakes occurrence is used.

For the case of USGS/NEIC catalogue data the change in b-value and in density of a number of earthquakes are examined. For the case of the use of Harvard catalogue the change in apparent stress values, change in mean correlation in orientation of focal mechanisms, in magnitude mb/mw ratio values, and a few other parameters are used also.

In result of the examination a power-law character of evolution of fore- and aftershock cascades was confirmed. In the period of development of fore- and aftershock cascades a few effects indicating a development of some sort of power-law shear instability were revealed.  The apparent stress values tend to decrease and a correlation between the orientation of focal mechanisms of the major and the current event tend to increase while approaching to a moment of the major earthquake. Besides this type of instability, a weaker anomaly was revealed in a more wide vicinity of strong earthquake. Thus two different modes of instability were found to exist in the vicinity of strong earthquakes. Possible physical interpretations of these anomalies and their connection with the problem of prognosis of strong earthquakes are discussed.