SUMARRY

Tsunami hazard for coastal and islands of Việt Nam

Mai Xun Bch, Cao Đnh Trọng, Vũ Trọng Tấn

A country with thousands kilometers coastline as Việt Nam, the research and forecast for tsunami hazard were very necessary. The simulation of tsunami propagation program in shallow water, which was developed on the basis of the Green's functions, were transferred to Vietnam in scientific cooperative program between Vietnam and Italy 2006-2008 in order to simulate tsunami propagation in East Sea Việt Nam. The simulation of tsunami propagation programs were applied in Vietnam before, were programs being used widely on the world. These programs, developed from Bernoulli's equation, were applied to the deep waters. According to the geological data, geophysical analysis combined with document about earthquakes and Coulomb stress field, we presented 16 active faults generating earthquakes in the studying area. The magnitudes earthquakes Mmax was predictied 7.0- 8.85 in the region, the maximum value was 8.85 in Manila subducted zone. Earthquake larger than 7.0 could cause dangerous tsunami on the coast and islands in Vietnam. If earthquakes and tsunamis occur on the Red River fault, River Lot, North Paracels, longitude 110, Thuận Hải - Minh Hải, they can cause tsunami with 2-5 m waves at some coastal regions. If earthquake with M = 8.85 occurs in Manila, it can cause tsunami with 5-6 m high wave in Quảng Ngi and 6-7 m high wave in Paracels and Spratly Islands, Việt Nam.

Người bin tập: GS. TS Bi Cng Quế.