SUMMARY

Establishing the earthquake prediction program by statistical model

Ngô Thị Lư, Trần Việt Phương

On the basis of new approaches, the algorithm and program of earthquake prediction by statistical models have been established. The difference compared to previous prediction schemes in proposed algorithm is that instead of using the time of consecutive earthquakes, the authors used the midpoint of the interval (t_si = ½(t_i+t_i+l). Algorithm allows us also to assess the confident intervals of parameters when a probability of predictive event is given . This is a new approach to predict earthquakes in Việt Nam. New algorithm gives the ability of predicting earthquakes with any chấn cấp that would occur within a determine time in the future.

The application of the built program to test the earthquake prediction for the West Bắc Bộ region has given some results worth to be considered. The check of the correctness of the program by backward into the past shows that the predicted results are quite consistent with the events happened in reality. It shows that, although this is a new program, first established in Việt Nam, but it can be considered as a support tool for other available tools to serve the research of short-term earthquake prediction. In particular, if the application of this program in combination with programs developed on the basis of other approaches which have tectono-physical characteristics will certainly give effective results in the study of short-term earthquake prediction.

Người biên tập: TS. Nguyễn Văn Lương.